Do Donald Trumps tweets effect stock market prices?

US president Donald trump is a prolific user of twitter which some say has been noted to instigate large swings in the prices of stocks, bonds and cryptocurrency prices according to the latest research.

In more then 10,000 tweets he has release on his account since he became the president of the USA, he has often commented on the stock market often claiming its performance on his own economic success.

Over the past few weeks some of the largest banks in the USA including JPMorgan, Chase, Citibank and Merrill Lynch has issued quantitative analysis research studies on the impact of Trumps tweets on various asset classes.

Since the advent of Trump using twitter and the presidents direct contact using the channel, it has shifted market behaviors as investors are starting to keep an eye on the platform when it relates to the stock market.

trumps twitter account
Trumps twitter account which has 64.2 million followers currently in September 2019

Trump has recently claimed responsibility for the recent 40 percent gain on the S&P 500 index following his election win.

Even though Trump has been known to claim responsibility when stocks move higher, he has also been known to easily point the finger and blame others when they start falling.

After the S&P 500 plunged more then 20 percent recently late last year in 2018, Trump took to twitter to declare his dissatisfaction with interest rate settings from the US federal reserve.

The most pronounced record of currency price changes where recent changes when the USD weakened against the EUR and JPY, following tweets of the currency.

Since Trump as an influence over trade policy in the USA, these can effect market moves as it in turn is related to trade and monetary policies.

In a recent analysis in financiar services by the bank of America Merrill Lynch found that on days when Donal Trump tweets frequently, US stocks tend to under perform compared to when his twitter feed is quite.

The bank has setup a Volfefe index, which is an index named ofter Trumps famous covfefe tweet. This index has strong evidence that tweets have increasingly moved US rates marketing immediately after publication.

On top of this trump has also developed a reputation for breaking confidential news on trade negotiations with china via Twitter, these have been known to escalate tensions by his followers and the countries he is dealing with.

Trump also tweeted and described chinas XI Jinpin as an enemy of the united states, then suddenly within a few days the Chinese president was a “great leader” according to another separate tweet from the president.

Even after all of this China and the USA will resume trade talks next week as the world is already seeing the effects of the tariffs imposed and how it effects the stock market.

Unless the Trump administration is prepared to back away from some of its key demands, the talks are likely to be as unproductive as previous attempts to negotiate a deal between the two countries.

China has been prepared for a while to make concessions but not all of those that the Trump administration has described as non negotiable.

What are the top 4 tweets by Donald Trump that has effected the Dow Jones ?

14th December 2018
The stock marketing is up massively since the election, but is now taking a little pause – people want to see what happens with the midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model. High taxes and open borders!

31st of December 2018
Just had a long talk and very good call with President Xi of China. Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and point of dispute. Big progress is being made.

15th of May 2019
If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional point, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%.. with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite.

21st August 2019
Doing great with China and other trade deals. The only problem we have is Jay Powell and the Fed. He is like a golfer who cant putt. Hs no touch. Big US growth if he does the right thing, BIG CUT – but don’t count on him! So far he has called it wrong and only let us down.

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